Private home prices rose 1.4% in H1, the slowest since 2020

URA published its full second-quarter statistics on 24 July, and they confirm what the flash estimate suggested three weeks ago: private home prices rose just 0.5%, taking the first half of 2026 to 1.4%, the weakest half-year gain since 2020. The full data adds the part the flash could not show. Buyers did not stop buying, they just went to the resale market.

The overall private residential price index has now risen 1.4% in the first six months of 2026, down from 1.8% over the same stretch last year. Christine Sun, chief researcher and strategist at Realion Group, pointed out that half-yearly price growth has been easing steadily since the first half of 2022, which she reads as a market stabilising rather than stalling.

The final segment numbers landed close to the flash estimates, with small revisions. Landed homes rose 2.5% in the quarter, and non-landed prices in the Core Central Region, the prime districts, climbed 1.8%. Everywhere else softened: city-fringe (Rest of Central Region) non-landed prices fell 1.2%, and mass-market (Outside Central Region) prices slipped 0.1%. Non-landed prices as a whole edged down 0.1%.

The 0.5% headline rise came from landed homes and the prime districts. City-fringe and mass-market prices slipped. Source: URA, Release of 2nd Quarter 2026 real estate statistics

That split matters more than the headline. Kelvin Fong, CEO of PropNex, said many homebuyers would experience this as a flat quarter, since the condos most people shop for got very slightly cheaper. We unpacked that divergence when the flash estimates landed; the full data confirms it, with landed transactions skewing towards the $5 million to $7.5 million band in Q2 after clustering between $2.5 million and $5 million in Q1.

Volumes tell the more interesting story

Total private home sales climbed 13.6% in the quarter to 6,148 units. The growth came almost entirely from the secondary market: 3,813 resale homes changed hands, up 18.2% from Q1, alongside 194 sub-sales. Developers sold 2,141 new homes, barely more than the 2,013 they moved in the first quarter.

With only three new launches in the quarter, the resale market did most of the business. Source: URA, Release of 2nd Quarter 2026 real estate statistics

The reason is simple: there was very little new to buy. Only three projects launched in the quarter, and all three sold well. Tengah Garden Residences moved 99% of its units, Vela Bay 72%, and Hudson Place Residences 61%. Marcus Chu, CEO of ERA Singapore, attributed the price moderation to this thin launch calendar and expects the pattern to reverse in the third quarter, when several new projects come to market and could pull activity back out of the resale segment.

Rents quietly picked up pace too. The overall rental index rose 0.7% in Q2 after a 0.3% rise in Q1, with landed rents up 2.7% and non-landed rents up 0.4%. The vacancy rate for completed private homes, excluding ECs, stood at 6.4% at the end of the quarter.

Supply builds into the second half

Supply is where the second half gets interesting. As at the end of Q2, 42,472 units including ECs were in the pipeline with planning approval, of which 15,810 remained unsold. Around 60,600 private homes are expected to complete over the next few years. On top of that, the Government will launch 4,745 units on the Confirmed List of the H2 2026 Government Land Sales programme, taking this year’s Confirmed List supply to 9,320 units, more than 50% above the average annual supply of the past decade.

Leonard Tay, head of research at Knight Frank Singapore, described the market as settling into a more balanced and sustainable phase after two strong years, with a persistent price gap between new launches and resale homes creating a two-tier market: new projects command a premium, while completed homes give upgraders and downgraders the more affordable route.

What this means for you

• Shopping for a mass-market or city-fringe condo? Prices in those segments fell this quarter while choice is about to expand. The heavy H2 launch calendar and the unsold pipeline argue against rushing to meet a seller’s price.
• Upgraders can take their time on the numbers: your target segment eased 0.1% to 1.2% this quarter, and around 60,600 homes complete over the next few years.
• Selling a resale condo? Q2 was unusually kind to you, with resale volume up 18.2% because launches were thin. That window may narrow once Q3 launches arrive, so if you are already in the market, price to transact.
• Landlords get a mild tailwind: rents rose 0.7% and have now climbed two quarters running, though the coming completion wave is worth watching before assuming rental growth compounds.