What June's BTO application rates tell you about your odds

June’s BTO exercise closed with about 3.3 applications per flat, but that average hides a split market: two Prime projects in Bukit Merah and Bishan drew nearly two thirds of all applicants, while several Ang Mo Kio and Sembawang flat types attracted fewer applicants than flats. For anyone eyeing October, the pattern is a map of where your ballot odds are good.

What happened

HDB offered 6,952 flats across seven projects in Ang Mo Kio, Bishan, Bukit Merah, Sembawang and Woodlands in its June exercise, with applications open from 17 to 24 June. By 5pm on closing day, 22,634 buyers had applied, an overall rate of about 3.3 applications per flat, based on HDB Flat Portal figures reported by the major agencies. Final rates for each project and flat type are published on the HDB Flat Portal.

The demand concentrated hard at the top. Berlayar Rise, the 1,976-unit Prime project near Telok Blangah MRT in the future Greater Southern Waterfront, pulled in 8,824 applications, about 4.5 per flat. PropNex chief executive Kelvin Fong noted that Berlayar Rise alone accounted for nearly 40 percent of all applications in the exercise. Lakeview Cascadia in Bishan, a 1,221-unit Prime project, drew 5,799 applications, about 4.7 per flat; Fong attributed the turnout to its location and pent-up demand, as the first BTO in the Lakeview area in more than 40 years.

Berlayar Rise alone took roughly four in ten applications. Chart: HomeAsset. Data: HDB Flat Portal, via PropNex and Realion.

Christine Sun, chief researcher and strategist at Realion Group, observed that Bukit Merah’s 4-room flats alone drew 4,943 applicants, the most of any flat type and town in the exercise, even with Prime resale conditions attached. Buyers, in other words, were undeterred by the 10-year minimum occupation period and the 14 percent subsidy recovery that HDB set for Berlayar Rise.

The quiet corners

The other side of the ledger was just as striking. In Ang Mo Kio, the two Plus projects, Kebun Baru Ridge and Kebun Baru Breeze, were running at only slightly more than one application per flat by noon on closing day, based on Huttons Asia’s reading of the portal data. Huttons chief executive Mark Yip called it plausible that some buyers switched to Lakeview Cascadia nearby. ERA key executive officer Eugene Lim pointed to the 10 to 15 minute walk to Mayflower MRT and the tighter resale conditions on Plus flats. For contrast, Huttons noted that first-timer families applied for Kebun Baru Edge’s 4-room flats at 8.6 per flat back in August 2020.

There were pockets of heat even there: Lim highlighted that Kebun Baru Ridge’s 3-room flats were 22.9 times oversubscribed among second-timer families, likely families with young children drawn by the proximity to CHIJ St Nicholas Girls’ School and a waiting time of about three years and one month.

In Sembawang, first-timer family application rates for Sembawang Portico and Sembawang Brook fell below one across all 3-room and larger flat types as of 5pm on closing day. Lim called the measured demand unsurprising: both sites are a distance from Sembawang MRT, nearby amenities are still thin, and close to 4,000 flats have already been launched in the town this year, with another 1,310 units coming in October. Yip added that the shorter waiting times, under three years for 2,035 of these flats, did not sway applicants. SRI’s head of research Mohan Sandrasegeran drew the practical conclusion: for first-timer families who care most about ballot success, Sembawang offered unusually good odds.

Sun also flagged a surprise: Woodgrove Acres in Woodlands outperformed the two Ang Mo Kio projects despite a weaker location, suggesting the long MOP and higher Plus prices deterred buyers more than distance did.

What this means for you

• Application rates are your single best odds tool. An undersubscribed flat type (rate below 1) means more flats than first-timer applicants, so selection is close to assured. HDB itself advises applying to projects with rates around one or lower, and updates the portal several times daily during each exercise.
• The crowd pays for location twice. At 4.5 to 4.7 applications per flat, most Berlayar Rise and Lakeview Cascadia applicants walked away empty-handed, and those who succeed accept a 10-year MOP plus subsidy recovery on resale. That trade can still be worth it for a long-term home; it is a poor fit if flexibility matters to you.
• Value hunters got rewarded in June. A 4-room at Sembawang Portico or Brook started from about $302,000 before grants, or roughly $222,000 after the maximum Enhanced CPF Housing Grant, with some waits under three years and near-certain ballot success.
• October changes the calculus. The next exercise brings about 7,960 flats, including likely Prime projects in Bayshore and Toa Payoh. If June is a guide, those will be heavily contested while Sembawang’s October batch and Tengah should again offer strong odds.